A Socio-Economic-Aware Maritime Intelligence Framework for Understanding the Interactions Between Vessel Operations, Economic Activity, and Environmental Sustainability
Douglas Amobi Amoke1, Dr Syed Mohsen Naqvi (Supervisor)1
- Intelligent Sensing Lab, School of Engineering, Newcastle University, United Kingdom
Maritime transportation underpins the United Kingdom's economic prosperity and international trade, yet increasing pressures from supply chain disruptions, decarbonisation policies, port congestion, adverse weather conditions, and geopolitical events have exposed the vulnerability of maritime logistics systems. While Automatic Identification System (AIS) based maritime intelligence has achieved significant advances in vessel trajectory prediction, anomaly detection, traffic monitoring, and port analytics, existing studies remain predominantly vessel-centric and rarely investigate the broader interactions between maritime operations, economic activity, and environmental sustainability. This limitation hinders the development of intelligent decision-support frameworks capable of addressing emerging challenges associated with maritime resilience and net-zero transitions.
This work introduces a novel Socio-Economic-Aware Maritime Intelligence (SEAMI) framework for analysing interdependencies among vessel operations, economic performance, and environmental outcomes within the United Kingdom's maritime domain. Using AIS-derived vessel trajectories from UK ports between January 2020 and April 2026, combined with economic indicators, port operational statistics, weather observations, and OECD maritime emissions data, the proposed framework investigates how economic activity influences vessel traffic dynamics and how operational behaviour subsequently affects congestion, fuel consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions.
The framework extracts vessel mobility, voyage, and traffic features from AIS data and integrates them with macroeconomic indicators, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), trade volume, industrial production, and port performance metrics. To capture complex interactions among ports, vessels, economic regions, and environmental systems, a dynamic graph-learning architecture is proposed alongside explainable artificial intelligence and causal discovery techniques. Additionally, this research evaluates conventional machine learning, deep learning, graph neural network, and transformer-based approaches for predicting maritime congestion, traffic density, emissions, and economic impacts. Explainability and causal analyses are employed to identify key drivers of congestion and emissions and to quantify the influence of economic growth, trade activity, and weather conditions on maritime operations.
By moving beyond traditional vessel-behaviour modelling, this work establishes a new paradigm for sustainability-aware maritime intelligence, supporting evidence-based policy development, resilient port operations, and strategic planning within the UK maritime sector. The proposed SEAMI framework contributes to the development of intelligent maritime transportation systems that simultaneously address economic efficiency, environmental sustainability, and transportation resilience.
Keywords Maritime Transportation, Automatic Identification System (AIS), Socio-Economic-Aware Maritime Intelligence, Maritime Emissions, Port Congestion, Graph Neural Networks, Explainable Artificial Intelligence, Digital Maritime Systems, Sustainability, United Kingdom